With respect to matters such as the budget or notable by-election results, and particularly when a politician uses the word 'historic' as George Galloway did in his victory speech at Bradford West, I always find it best to let the dust settle before moving in to conduct a post-mortem. Rushing in amid heady celebrations and hysteria can only result in inaccurate reporting and, if you care about the content you put out, a deep feeling of embarrassment about those errors later, however small the audience may be.
Saying that, I could have started writing this article before the ballot boxes were delivered to Bradford West because I knew Mr. Galloway was going to win, and I have the betting slip to prove it. Ladbrokes, not best known for their political nous, report that they will be digging over £100,000 out of their deep pockets to reward the punters who saw odds of 6-1 for a George Galloway victory as uncharacteristically generous.
Sadly, and as is far too often the case, I should have bet more on the outcome.
Still, I'll be collecting my £18 from the bookies later on, whilst hoping the woman working behind the counter doesn't think I'm too sad or weird for betting on politics instead of the horses or football.
The result was certainly more comprehensive than I had expected, with Mr. Galloway taking 56% of all votes cast - quite different from his assertion that 'half the people of Bradford West' had voted for him, but it was a substantial victory nonetheless.
However, this was not the 'historic' success that George Galloway and the media have hailed it. Mr. Galloway's belief that his victory is a signal of an impending meltdown of the main Westminster parties nationwide is nothing more than wishful thinking. We've heard this sort of heady rhetoric throughout political history, but sadly the big parties have always triumphed in the end.
Labour may have dropped 20% of their previous vote at Bradford West, but during the infamous, and now slightly ironic Bermondsey by-election of 1983, Simon Hughes, who has since been outed as bi-sexual, made much of Peter Tatchell's homosexuality, and Labour lost almost 40% of their vote from the ballet in the 1979 general election - this was a much more surprising and damaging loss than Bradford West will prove to be.More similar to Galloway's triumph was the Lincoln by-election of 1973, when Dick Taverne stood down as the constituency's Labour MP only to re-elected as the Democratic Labour MP. Taverne's individual triumph over the party machine caused panic in the Labour Party and was greeted with similar hysteria by the press. Less than 18 months later however there was another shock as Labour re-gained the seat with relative ease.
Whilst by-elections are notoriously skewed when it comes to judging the overall political climate, we can say with some confidence that Labour are becoming increasingly vulnerable in the north of England. The reasons are many and complicated, but If the party are to make a swift return in Bradford West much will need to change, and quickly.
For many voters in constituencies throughout the north of England, voting Labour is based on an out-dated, shorthand assumption that the Labour Party represent working-class people. In safe Labour seats, where opponents put up little resistance, many northerners are given little alternative but to vote Labour, anything else, they are told, could 'contribute towards a victory for the Tories'.
This is beginning to change, however. The north, like Scotland before it, is slowly turning its back on what is perceived as an increasingly out-of-touch Labour party dominated by upper-class technocrats like Ed Miliband who don't care about, or understand, the north of England. Where there is strong competition from a candidate like George Galloway, Labour will begin to see the loyalty of northern voters shifting.
Mr. Galloway is an adaptable and skillful orator, capable of poking the sores of any given voter. In a constituency like Bradford West, which has been hit disproportionately by the Tory spending cuts and benefited little when Labour were in office, it only takes a small dose of Mr. Galloway's anti-establishment rhetoric to rouse an already disillusioned public.
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Firstly, it is important to stress how woefully inept the tactics of Mr. Galloway's opposition were. The Tories were barely seen out on the streets, despite having a fully staffed office in Yorkshire. Labour's appalling pro-war record was exposed in a constituency with a high percentage of Muslim constituents. As was their tired, complacent assumptions about how to campaign to voters in the north of England. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile, seem to be in free-fall throughout the entire country.
Secondly, the mundane candidates offered up by the big political parties played straight into the hands of Mr. Galloway, whose impassioned, wholehearted rhetoric in the causes he chooses to champion is a noticeable break from the shackles of party politics. His in-exhaustive fund of enthusiasm, dynamism as a public speaker and a knack of rattling the political cage are capable of galvanising any audience. As much as his ideologies are questionable, he believes in his arguments, and voters can sense that sort of genuine agenda that traditional party politicians so often lack.
Galloway was able to use all his skill and cleverness in evading being corrupted by the views that he shares with his nasty, little party, Respect, as well as avoiding tricky issues such as his second home in the Algarve and his gleeful support for some of the most abhorrent regimes in the Middle-East. Much of that however, was the fault of Labour, whose appallingly targeted campaign leaflets (which I have seen), predominantly concentrated on attacking the Tories, who were never going to win anyway - their vote dropped to just 8%, after hovering between 30 - 40% for over 40 years.
Also crucial to this tale was the constituency of Bradford West itself, which has one of the most unpredictable recent electoral histories of any UK constituency. In 1979, they rejected Mrs. Thatcher and swung towards Labour, during the election of New Labour's first landslide in 1997 they swung towards the Tories, and then in 2010 the seat was one of handful where Labour increased their majority.
Like the initial win for Stuart Drummond in 2002, who was elevated to the office of Hartlepool mayor after campaigning as the town's football mascot, H'angus the monkey, this was the right man (or monkey) in the right place, at the right time. The next trick for Mr. Galloway is to follow Drummond, who has now won 3 elections, and compile successive victories.
His big test will be the 2015 general election when a big draw for Bradford West voters will be Labour's assertion that only a vote for them can displace the Tories and 'stop the cuts'. Until then, Labour have little to offer those who live in the north of England.
